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Government
A Post-American World?
by
Norton Herbst
It’s been said that the world is becoming “post-American.” That is, globalization will produce an equalizing quality in the coming decades whereby the U.S. will no longer dominate the global economy, orchestrate geopolitics, or overwhelm cultures with its influence. In his bestselling book,
The Post-American World
, Fareed Zakaria explains: “This is not . . . about the decline of America, but rather about the rise of everyone else.” In other words, Zakaria and others believe that during the twenty-first century, countries like Brazil, India, China, Russia and Indonesia will rival American influence and alter the historical landscape.
There’s no doubt that globalization is reshaping our world. And new conflicts—the war on terror and our presence in Iraq and Afghanistan—are forging new eras of geopolitics. But what if the forecasters are wrong about a “post-American” future? What if the twenty-first century should more accurately be called “the American century”?
In his book,
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
, George Friedman (no relation to Thomas Friedman) makes just that argument. In his bold predictions for the 21st century, Friedman readily admits: “I have no crystal ball. . . I will, of course, get many details wrong. But the goal is to identify the major tendencies—geopolitical, demographic, cultural, military—in their broadest sense, and to define the major events that might take place.”
In doing so, Friedman asserts that the 21st century “will be the beginning of a new age, and it will see a new global power astride the world. . . We are now in an America-centric age.”
He cites several reasons to believe that America is just beginning its dominance of the world:
The American economy is head and shoulders above all other nations. A staggering 26 percent of the world’s GDP takes place in America. The next largest economy is Japan—which is only about 8 percent of the world (one third the size of the U.S. GDP). In fact, the American economy is larger than the next four nations on the list combined: Japan, Germany, China, and the U.K.
Despite what many think, the U.S. is currently a significant energy producer. American oil production is greater than Iran, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, and it’s only slightly less than both Russia and Saudi Arabia. American natural gas production is second only to Russia. So, while there are concerns about American dependence on foreign energy, it is actually one of the world’s largest energy producers now. And Friedman predicts that America will become the world's largest energy producer in the future through a space-based system of solar panels.
The U.S. is underpopulated by world standards. The average world population density (measured in inhabitants per square kilometer) is 49. Japan’s is 338; Germany’s is 230; America’s is only 31. Even if the numbers are calculated according to land suitable for agriculture (which would negate much of Alaska), America still has five times as much land as Asia, almost twice as much as Europe, and three times as much as the global average. Economies consist of land, labor, and capital, which means that the U.S. still has plenty of growth available compared to any of the other industrialized nations of the world.
The U.S. dominates all other nations in military power. Its geography makes it almost invulnerable to invasion and occupation. And unlike virtually every other industrial power in the world, America did not experience devastating war in the 20th century. Certainly, it participated in the World Wars and other conflicts, but the U.S. has not had to recover in the same ways that the many other nations did.
Finally, the U.S. dominates the world’s oceans and shipping lanes with its navy. This fact cannot be overstated. The combined naval power of every other nation in the world doesn’t even come close to matching that of the U.S. Navy. In fact, there has never been a period in history where one nation has controlled all of the world’s oceans. And control of the seas doesn’t just lead to military might, but international trade. In 1980, transpacific trade rose to equal transatlantic trade for the first time in history. There is only one nation that borders both oceans, dominates both, and will continue to do so for the next century: America. Navies don’t take months or even years to build; they take many decades. No other nation is remotely close to challenging American supremacy of the seas, and consequently, international trade.
In sum, Friedman argues that cultures often move through three phases: infancy, adolescence, and adulthood. America is just now entering adolescence. And like adolescents, America is a culture with an odd mixture of overconfidence and insecurity. Which means the nation will continue to make stupid choices, go through irrational mood swings, and struggle with its identity as it moves forward. But it also indicates America has not yet reached full maturity. And in light of all the reasons mentioned, there is no indication that it won’t.
Whether you agree with Friedman’s conclusions and predictions, they raise a few questions that thoughtful Christians should ponder:
The identities of American Christians will continue to be torn between that of their faith and their nation. Which will dominate?
As American culture continues to lead and permeate the world, what aspects of it will be based upon or challenged by biblical values?
With power and influence often comes pride and arrogance. Yet pride and arrogance are two traits the Old Testament prophets roundly condemn in both Israel and the other superpowers of the day (Assyria and Babylon)? How will American Christians navigate these dangerous temptations?
When American Christians influence other cultures through missions work, humanitarian work, and basic economic activity, what ideals will they export?
What other questions should we be considering?
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Comments
Steve Bezner
Good thoughts here. I read Zakaria's book, and was surprised to find that he also did not see the American role decreasing in the next century. He saw other influences rising (namely China and India), but he certainly argues in the same vein of Friedman with regard to economy and military might.
From a Christian perspective, if the U.S. begins to embrace a more global role, this can only help the spread of the Gospel. For churches in the U.S., they will begin to learn from other cultures and global churches. For churches outside, they will be receptive to partnerships with churches inside the U.S.
At any rate, the future isn't nearly as bleak as we often predict. Granted, inflation is directly ahead for the U.S., and it won't be pleasant, but that's an adolescent decision, I would think.
Steve Bezner
Follow up: I think the U.S. (and U.S. Christians) have to think through the responsibility of having so much wealth and influence, both politically and spiritually. How should we use this influence wisely?
Quentin Todd
American Christians will have remember their history.
QUOTE: With power and influence often comes pride and arrogance. Yet pride and arrogance are two traits the Old Testament prophets roundly condemn in both Israel and the other superpowers of the day (Assyria and Babylon)? How will American Christians navigate these dangerous temptations? UNQUOTE.
Hubris is the most dangerous trait in the American character, especially in foreign policy. With the military might as since 1776, American Christians will have to wage a firm war onto their conscience, because conscience is a surprising malady. The ethics of intervention can no longer be tagged as Liberty seeking because there are too many ulterior motives. Iraq is one pretext for what? American Christians, as well as New Zealand Christians where I live, must understand Jesus as a Christian ethic example.
There has been, to provide an example, a debate of late whether American Christians should be celebrating the death of Osama bin Laden. Should you celebrate the assassination of a criminal?
Truth Justice and the American Way are fast becoming an irritation. So you are right to question the exporting of ideals and strength. It will become harder for us all Christians to determine right, and justice in the name of Jesus
Quentin Todd
American Christians will have to remember their history.
QUOTE: With power and influence often comes pride and arrogance. Yet pride and arrogance are two traits the Old Testament prophets roundly condemn in both Israel and the other superpowers of the day (Assyria and Babylon)? How will American Christians navigate these dangerous temptations? UNQUOTE.
Hubris is the most dangerous trait in the American character, especially in foreign policy. With the military might as since 1776, American Christians will have to wage a firm war onto their conscience, because conscience is a surprising malady. The ethics of intervention can no longer be tagged as Liberty seeking because there are too many ulterior motives. Iraq is one pretext for what? American Christians, as well as New Zealand Christians where I live, must understand Jesus as a Christian ethic example.
There has been, to provide an example, a debate of late whether American Christians should be celebrating the death of Osama bin Laden. Should you celebrate the assassination of a criminal?
Truth Justice and the American Way are fast becoming an irritation. So you are right to question the exporting of ideals and strength. It will become harder for us all Christians to determine right, and justice in the name of Jesus
Comments are now closed
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